UFC 315 predictions — Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, picks

Belal Muhammad will put the welterweight title on the line against Jack Della Maddalena this Saturday at UFC 315. Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena is just one of two title fights on the card, with women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko facing Manon Fiorot in the co-main event.

Muhammad won the title in his most recent fight, bullying Leon Edwards en route to a clear unanimous decision victory. In Della Maddalena, he faces a dangerous striker who has won 17 consecutive fights, with 14 coming by stoppage.

Shevchenko finds herself in a similar position to Muhammad, making the first defense of the title she regained in her most recent outing against a fighter on a lengthy winning streak. After seven defenses of the women’s flyweight title, Shevchenko suffered a shocking upset loss to Alexa Grasso. After fighting Grasso to a draw in the rematch, Shevchenko won their trilogy fight to regain the title. Now, she’ll put that belt on the line against Fiorot, who is riding a 12-fight winning streak.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 315 fight card: Jose Aldo, Alexa Grasso and Benoit Saint Denis among undercard fighters worth watching

Shakiel Mahjouri

UFC 315 fight card, odds

• Belal Muhammad (c) -190 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +150, welterweight title
• Manon Fiorot -140 vs. Valentina Shevchenko (c) +115, women’s flyweight title
• Jose Aldo -220 vs. Aiemann Zahabi +175, featherweights
• Natalia Silva -225 vs. Alexa Grasso +175, women’s flyweights
• Benoit Saint Denis -1115 vs. Kyle Prepolec +750, lightweights
• Lee Jeong Yeong -127 vs. Daniel Santos +102, featherweights
• Mike Malott -200 vs. Charles Radtke +160, welterweights
• Modestas Bukauskas -110 vs. Ion Cuțelaba -110, light heavyweights
• Jasmine Jasudavicius -335 vs. Jessica Andrade +250, women’s flyweights
• Navajo Stirling -278 vs. Ivan Erslan +215, light heavyweights
• Joshua Van -480 vs. Bruno Silva +360, middleweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 315 picks, predictions

Muhammad vs. Maddalena

Campbell: For all of the possible strengths and accolades to be showered upon Della Maddalena as a legitimate title challenger, it’s hard to overlook a few other factors. JDM has been idle for 14 months, needed to rally in the final round to score a TKO of Gilbert Burns while down on the scorecards and recorded a pair of split-decision wins before that. Muhammad, for how polarizing as he can be to the critics that call him boring, has been nothing if not consistent over his current 12-fight unbeaten streak. Muhammad not only has the better gas tank, he’s more proven as a five-round elite fighter. And even though one can give the edge in striking to the challenger, Muhammad’s grappling advantages should be enough to control the fight, especially considering the success previous opponents have had in taking Della Maddalena down. 

Brookhouse: I believe Della Maddalena has better takedown defense than he’s given credit for. Burns was extremely effective on his takedowns against Della Maddalena, but the only other time Della Maddalena was taken down more than once in a UFC fight was against Bassil Hafez. In that fight, Hafez scored three total takedowns … out of 20 attempts. Muhammad has the better wrestling, to be sure, but if he tries to walk straight forward into Della Maddalena and attempt to be a bully, he’s going to be walking through some heavy fire. I probably should have learned my lesson to stop doubting Muhammad at this point, but this feels like a trap fight against a very live underdog.

Shevchenko vs. Fiorot

Campbell: After regaining her title last fall at the age of 37 to conclude a memorable trilogy against Alexa Grasso, Shevchenko only furthered her the notion that she’s a living legend and a surefire Hall of Famer. But Shevchenko will be a betting underdog against the red-hot Fiorot, 35, who has won all seven of her UFC fights against one top contender and former title challenger after another. It’s not that Fiorot isn’t deserving of being the favorite as, save for some close rounds against Rose Namajunas, she has largely dominated the competition. But Fiorot has typically done so fighting on her own terms exclusively by controlling distance and scoring from the outside with strikes. Shevchenko is too experience and well rounded to be taken lightly in this matchup. Even with Fiorot’s stubborn takedown defense, Shevchenko will test her in every possible category from the clinch to how well she lands from the pocket without taking big punishment in return. If Shevchenko can slow the fight down and make it more of a chess match, there’s no reason why a close and competitive upset won’t be the result. 

Mahjouri: Shevchenko and Fiorot are the two best women’s flyweights. They excel at shutting down opponents and leading the scorecards with striking numbers. Statistically, Fiorot has higher output, while Shevchenko mixes takedowns better. This could be a passing of the torch moment, but it won’t. Shevchenko’s experience will be the difference maker in a competitive fight, making the better decisions when it matters most. I’ll side with the champ via unanimous decision.

Aldo vs. Zahabi

Brookhouse: Zahabi is a good striker against fringe contender-level fighters, but Aldo is an exceptional striker against anyone in the world. Zahabi has scored one takedown in eight UFC fights, so Aldo should feel free to let go with punches and kicks with no threat of a takedown. If that’s the case, it’s as simple as siding with the MMA legend with superior striking, elite defense and blistering leg kicks. It doesn’t look like Zahabi is in for a fun night.

Mahjouri: Aldo’s longevity should be studied. It’s impressive that the 38-year-old still competes with ranked opponents in the deep bantamweight division. Zahabi has made significant progress since losing his first two fights. Zahabi is a good striker, but more importantly, he’s responsible. Zahabi’s striking defense and takedown defense are his strongest assets. Unfortunately, he’s about to run into one of the sport’s all-time best. Aldo has a robust toolbelt and more experience than most. Zahabi doesn’t possess the tide-turning skills to overcome everything Aldo can throw at him. I see Aldo return to the win column by decision.