Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales is a textbook crossroads fight. Burns, the former UFC welterweight title challenger at 38, is on his first losing streak. Morales, a rising contender at 25, has never lost a fight. Their contrasting career paths collide at UFC Fight Night.
Burns (22-8) is a curious case. “Durinho” lost his last three fights, but they’ve aged unusually well. Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena won UFC titles soon after beating Burns, and Sean Brady is now ranked No. 2 by the promotion. Burns’ days as a title contender are likely over, but he has something to prove as the biggest underdog on the card.
Morales (17-0) is a phenom. The wide betting margin speaks to the enthusiasm around his potential. Morales is a massive -800 favorite despite facing his most accomplished opponent by far. Knocking out a veteran like Neil Magny is impressive, but Burns is a different caliber. Welterweight has become one of UFC’s most interesting divisions thanks to an influx of new talent replacing the old guard. If Morales succeeds on Saturday, he’ll enter the room with Della Maddalena, Brady, Ian Machado Garry, Shavkat Rakhmonov and Joaquin Buckley.
The UFC Apex is becoming increasingly synonymous with shallow cards. This week’s Fight Night is a testament to that. Excluding the main event, the only bout with ranked fighters is the early preliminary clash between Tecia Pennington and Luana Pinheiro, a placement that speaks volumes about the depth at women’s strawweight. At least Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig will likely produce a finish.
Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday, with the latest odds before we predict the main event.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
| Michael Morales -800 | Gilbert Burns +550 | Welterweight |
| Rodolfo Bellato -550 | Paul Craig +400 | Light heavyweight |
| Mairon Santos -130 | Sodiq Yusuff +110 | Lightweight |
| Nursulton Ruziboev -300 | Dustin Stoltzfus +240 | Middleweight |
| Melquizael Costa -190 | Julian Erosa +160 | Featherweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: May 17 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
TV channel: ESPN+
Prediction
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales: I’m shocked by how wide the betting margins are. I acknowledge Burns and Morales are headed in opposite directions, but favoring Morales eight-to-one disrespects his opponent. Della Maddalena, the new UFC champion, needed a Hail Mary knockout to beat Burns in September. That said, declines are exponential, and maybe that was Burns’ last great push. Morales is nasty business on the feet. He averages nearly 5.5 strikes per minute while dodging return fire and fending off takedowns. He’s such a potent striker that many wouldn’t assume he’s a lifelong judoka and wrestler. That sturdy defensive grappling is key to keeping victory far from Burns.
“Durinho” has serious punching power but lacks Morales’ finesse. Burns’ best chance to win is by implementing his world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game. The biggest question is how good Burns’ offensive wrestling is. His seven takedowns against Della Maddalena were the most he’s achieved in a UFC fight — was that an apparition or sign of things to come? The takedown battles determine who wins this fight. I believe Burns is severely underestimated, but I think Morales’ hype is warranted. Morales via KO4
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