Two titles are on the line when UFC 315 lands in Montreal on Saturday. In the night’s main event, Belal Muhammad will make his first defense of the welterweight championship when he faces Jack Della Maddalena.
Muhammad dominated Leon Edwards in their UFC 304 bout to win the title. While it seemed he would make his first defense against Shavkat Rakhmonov in December, Muhammad was forced out of the fight due to a bone infection in his foot. Rakhmonov suffered an injury shortly after, setting up the opportunity for Della Maddalena, who is currently riding a 17-fight winning streak, to challenge for the belt.
In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko will defend the women’s flyweight championship against Manon Fiorot. This fight is Shevchenko’s first defence of her second reign as champion. She capped off a trilogy of fights with Alexa Grasso with an impressive UFC 306 win to regain the belt. Fiorot is 12-0 since losing her professional debut and is coming into her first UFC title fight as a favorite.
With all the action set for Saturday’s card, there will be plenty of interest from fans at sportsbook windows or apps. With that in mind, we laid out our picks for the best bet for every fight on the UFC 315 main card.
After going 4-1 with our best bets for UFC 314, our 2025 record sits at 12-6. We’ll look to continue our roll on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s picks.
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
Under 1.5 rounds (-188)
Prepolec is stepping in on short notice after Joel Alvarez suffered an injury in training. That lack of preparation already puts Prepolec in a bad situation, and when you add in that Saint Denis is a finisher (four knockouts and nine submissions in 13 career wins) who is going to be looking for redemption after being stopped twice in his two 2024 bouts, the outlook isn’t good. Saint Denis is -1050 to win and he should be expected to do so in fairly short order, but playing under 1.5 rounds leaves a bit of breathing room if Prepolec is able to catch Saint Denis clean and score a massive upset.
UFC 315 fight card: Jose Aldo, Alexa Grasso and Benoit Saint Denis among undercard fighters worth watching
Shakiel Mahjouri
Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
Alexa Grasso +3.5 (-140)
Silva is coming in as a surprisingly big favorite at -250 on the strength of 12 consecutive wins, most recently cruising to a wide decision over former champion Jessica Andrade. Grasso fought three consecutive times against division queenpin Valentina Shevchenko, pulling off a shocking upset in the first meeting, followed by a draw and then a loss. Grasso is a tough fighter and has a much higher fight IQ than someone like Andrade, who spent the fight with Silva getting badly outstuck but never shifting gears or changing her approach. Silva is the favorite for a reason, but it seems fair to think Grasso will manage to win at least one round, making the +3.5 spread a good bet.
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Jose Aldo via decision (-120)
It’s 2025 and Aldo is still showing up as a betting favorite against fighters on lengthy winning streaks. Zahabi has won five consecutive fights to earn the honor of fighting a legend. What Zahabi doesn’t bring to the table that could trouble Aldo is a threatening grappling game. Aldo has always had exceptional takedown defense to go with his elite striking, but when the opponent doesn’t present the threat of a takedown, it frees Aldo up to use his whole offensive arsenal. Zahabi has landed just one takedown in his eight UFC fights. If the fight is going to be a pure striking battle, Zahabi’s very good boxing will likely not be able to overcome Aldo’s exceptional timing with his punches and kicks. Aldo hasn’t scored a stoppage since 2019, so we’ll roll with him getting the win by decision in a fun striking battle.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Valentina Shevchenko via decision (+215)
It was fairly surprising to see Fiorot as the favorite coming into this championship fight. Shevchenko has long sat atop the division, with only the Grasso shock upset breaking her reign of dominance. Fiorot has not lost since she suffered a defeat in her pro debut and is a worthy challenger, but there must be some questions about her going five rounds with Shevchenko and not faltering. The fight will likely go the distance, which means you’re picking between whose game is built best to win at least three rounds. Shevchenko has slightly more dynamism to her game and after the Grasso rivalry, it feels unlikely she comes in unprepared or out of shape. For those reasons, it’s worth the good odds on Shevchenko earning the decision win.
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena money line (+160)
I’m as guilty as anyone of underestimating and not respecting the work of Muhammad, and I’m afraid I’m doing it again. Muhammad’s run has been tremendous, and every time fans have thought it would end, he wins again. Muhammad was phenomenal against Leon Edwards to win the title, applying constant pressure and never letting Edwards settle in. Muhammad likely has to be a little more careful using that pressure against Della Maddalenta, since there’s more risk of getting stopped in this fight than against Edwards. Muhammad will have to wade through dangerous spaces to get inside where the threat of his takedowns also opens up striking opportunities. Della Maddalena’s striking is technical and dangerous, and his takedown defense is good enough to make Muhammad work extra hard when he can close the distance. That feels like the perfect formula to end Muhammad’s 10-fight winning streak — or Muhammad proves me a fool for doubting him once again.
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings