Agent’s Take: How Lamar Jackson should approach a new contract with the Ravens

Lamar Jackson posted a cryptic message in an Instagram story several days ago that prompted speculation whether he was referring to his contract. “Once I show my love they show me why they don’t deserve it, right then soon as I put my guard down that’s when they hurt me,” the quarterback wrote attached to a photo from a youth football camp.

The Baltimore Ravens opened the door to Jackson’s contract being addressed sooner rather than later when coach John Harbaugh revealed at the NFL’s annual meetings in late March there had been internal discussions about a new deal. Jackson is in the third year of a five-year, $260 million contract he signed in 2023. Jackson is scheduled to make $43.5 million this year.

The $52 million-per-year deal, which included a then-record $72.5 million signing bonus, made Jackson the NFL’s highest-paid player. Out of the $260 million, there were $185 million in guarantees where $135 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Jackson has a no-trade clause. There’s also a provision preventing the Ravens from designating Jackson as a franchise or transition player when his contract expires after the 2027 season.

The 2023 negotiations were somewhat contentious. In anticipation of being designated as a franchise player, Jackson requested a trade. It is a rarity for a franchise tag to be a consideration with a quarterback who a team wants to retain. A new deal is typically signed in a contract year or occasionally with two years remaining on a rookie contract with first-round picks, like Jackson.

The Ravens took a calculated risk by giving Jackson a non-exclusive franchise designation in March 2023 for $32.416 million rather than the more expensive exclusive version at $45.248 million after he played out his five-year rookie contract. The non-exclusive franchise tag allowed Jackson to solicit offers from other teams while the exclusive designation would have prohibited that possibility.

The Ravens have more urgency for a new deal than Jackson although he has dropped to the NFL’s 10th-highest-paid player after Brock Purdy’s recent five-year, $265 million contract extension, averaging $53 million per year, with the San Francisco 49ers. Patience can be Jackson’s best friend because his salary cap number jumps from $43.5 million in 2025 to an unmanageable $74.5 million in 2026 and also in 2027. The $74.5 million is 2026’s third highest cap number.

Jackson is faring much better financially from a pure cash-flow perspective than by average yearly salary. Only Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who is the NFL’s highest-paid player at $60 million per year, is making more than Jackson’s $155.25 million from when he signed in 2023 running through the 2025 season. Prescott is making $165 million during this three-year span. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is third at $152.6 million. It was supposed to be $156 million for Jackson but he didn’t earn his $750,000 workout bonus in 2024.

Fortunately for Jackson, Harbaugh conceded at the league meetings that Jackson was going to be put back at the top of the NFL salary hierarchy with his next contract. “The value is the top,” Harbaugh said. “When Lamar gets paid, he’s going to be the highest-paid player in football, just like he was last time. I think every contract he signs till he decides to hang up his cleats, he’s going to be that guy.”

These dynamics give Jackson, who represents himself and has never had an agent, significant leverage in negotiations. He shouldn’t think about twice about using the existing circumstances to his advantage.

Jackson and the Ravens may have different ideas about highest paid. The Ravens are probably comfortable with treating Jackson the same way as when he signed his current contract. Jackson’s $52 million-per-year deal was 1.96% more than the $51 million-per-year extension Jalen Hurts received from the Philadelphia Eagles a few weeks earlier. A similar increase over Prescott’s $60 million per year would put Jackson in the $61.175 million-per-year neighborhood.

Jackson should be looking at how much the top of the quarterback market has gone up in recent years. The annual increases are outlined in the chart below.

Based on these trends, Jackson can justify $65.5 million to $67 million per year for a contract extension he signs this year. Jackson’s reasonable worst-case scenario should be adjusting his $52 million per year for the 24.2% increase of the salary cap since he signed in 2023. This is approximately $64.5 million per year.

Jackson should also make it clear to the Ravens that by waiting until next year to do a deal, the growth in the salary cap from 2025 to 2026 will need to be taken into account. For example, if the 2026 salary cap is set at $302.5 million, then the deal would have to be at $70 million per year because that would reflect the 34.56% salary cap inflation from 2023.

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Cody Benjamin

Jackson should identify several necessary contractual elements besides becoming the highest-paid player for an agreement to be reached. The deal should eclipse the financial benchmarks in the following key contract metrics, which list the current standards. 

• Overall contract guarantees: $250 million (Josh Allen-Buffalo Bills)
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $230 million (Deshaun Watson-Cleveland Browns)
• Signing bonus: $78,453,333 (Prescott)
• Three-year cash flow: $174 million (Prescott)
• Four-year cash flow: $220 million (Allen)

An inability by Baltimore to satisfy each one of these elements should be considered a deal breaker for Jackson.

Jackson should be adamant that he is only committing to three new contract years whether he gets a new deal in 2025 or 2026. He would be under contract for a total of six years if signing this year. It would be five total years with a new deal next year. The no-trade clause and the prohibition against a franchise or transition tag would continue to be a part of Jackson’s contract.

Great cash flow would also be a requirement. Jackson should insist on bettering the most player-friendly cash for a three-year deal or three-year contract extension. 

Best cash flow belongs to Derek Stingley Jr. in the three-year, $90 million contract extension he received from the Houston Texans in March to dramatically reset the cornerback market by becoming the NFL’s first $30 million-per-year defensive back. The cash-flow percentages of Stingley’s deal are in the chart below.

Giving Jackson phenomenal cash flow wouldn’t be unprecedented for the Ravens. For example, the cash-flow percentages in the four-year extension, averaging $14 million per year, Mark Andrews signed right before the start of the 2021 regular season is far superior to the cash-flow percentages of the other highest-paid tight ends with deals of that length. Andrews’ extension made him the NFL’s third-highest-paid tight end upon signing.

Using $66 million per year for the extension, which is equivalent to the average top-of-the-market increase over the last three years, to provide some context, Jackson could have $102 million and $149 million of new money, respectively, after the first and second new contract years to slightly better Stingley’s cash-flow percentages. Given Jackson has $147.5 million in the final three years of his current contract (2025 through 2027), his four-year cash flow would be $249.5 million. 

Jackson really shouldn’t care what contract structure the Ravens utilize provided all of his necessary elements (record signing bonus, most contract guarantees, etc.) are in the deal. There could be multiple option bonuses and dummy/voiding contract years to help make the salary cap numbers more palatable should the Ravens decide that makes the most sense for them.

The process would be more of a dictation than a negotiation where he could take advantage of Baltimore’s need to lower his 2026 and 2027 salary cap numbers. Jackson would be trying to have his cake and eat it too with this approach. 

Nobody had an issue, except maybe Jackson, when the Ravens tried to put themselves in a more favorable negotiating position with their choice of the cheaper franchise tag. There shouldn’t be a problem with Jackson fully exploiting his negotiating leverage for maximum benefit. That’s what a savvy agent would do in the same position if allowed by a client to operate how he or she sees fit. Should Jackson decide to cut the Ravens some slack in the negotiations rather than drive an extremely hard bargain, that’s his prerogative.