![\"Geoff](\"https:\/\/a57.foxsports.com\/statics.foxsports.com\/www.foxsports.com\/content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/72\/72\/49ddd4f5-GeoffSchwartz_Headshot.jpg?ve=1&tl=1\")
<\/div>\n\n Geoff Schwartz\n <\/p>\n
\n FOX Sports Betting Analyst\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Game 7. Two of the best words in sports.<\/p>\n
This will be especially true when the\u00a0Indiana Pacers<\/a> and the Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a> take the court on Sunday for the final game of the 2025 NBA<\/u><\/a> Finals.<\/p>\n Dillon Jones of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Obi Toppin of the Indiana Pacers fight for a rebound during the fourth quarter in Game 6<\/span> <\/p>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n The Pacers dominated Game 6, tied the series and then forced a Game 7.\u00a0<\/p>\n OKC now has the opportunity to bounce back from a poor performance. But the Thunder will need guys to step up.\u00a0<\/p>\n After the season-saving Game 6 win for Indiana, both teams have a chance to clinch their first championship on Sunday.<\/p>\n With that in mind, I see four wagers that have value right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n Let’s dive into it.<\/p>\n Thunder first quarter<\/strong><\/p>\n My favorite wager to make in the postseason is to take a team coming off a loss to cover the first quarter in the next game when they are playing at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n It\u2019s an even better wager with a team like Oklahoma City, which is fantastic at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Thunder have won and covered the first quarter in all three home games of this series. They also won and covered four of the first six quarters following a loss. This last loss was gnarly. It marked the worst offensive performance by the Thunder this season.\u00a0<\/p>\n They shot just 26% from three-point range, with most of their makes coming during garbage time. They had 21 turnovers and were out-rebounded.\u00a0<\/p>\n Given that poor performance, it\u2019s common for teams to play better in their next game at home. I expect the Thunder to start fast on Sunday night.<\/p>\n PICK: Thunder (-3.5) first quarter<\/strong><\/p>\n My player props for Game 7 are all zigzag props. The theory involves betting the opposite side of a player prop following either an awful night or one that\u2019s been too good.\u00a0<\/p>\n For example, in Game 6, Aaron Wiggins<\/a> was the perfect fade opportunity. At home in Game 5, he scored 14 points, but in Game 6, he went Under 5.5 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n Keeping this in mind, here are my player prop picks for Game 7.<\/p>\n Alex Caruso<\/strong><\/a> Over 8.5 Points<\/strong><\/p>\n Caruso played 22 minutes in Game 6 and didn\u2019t score a single point.\u00a0<\/p>\n He only attempted two shots, the least number of shots he\u2019s taken in a game since logging 12 minutes in Game 1 against the Grizzlies. Caruso has scored just two points in the last two games while playing 51 minutes. There have been instances this postseason where he has fewer points than usual in two straight games, only to follow that up by scoring over 8.5 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n He scored 10 points in Game 4 against the Nuggets<\/a> after just nine in the previous two games and reached 10 points against the Wolves in Game 4 after only scoring 12 in the last two games.<\/p>\n Caruso might see more playing time as well. The Thunder have been tweaking their lineups, and he’s part of the most optimal lineup. He will get the chance to surpass 8.5 points.<\/p>\n PICK: Alex Caruso Over 8.5 points<\/strong><\/p>\n Alex Caruso handles the ball against the Indiana Pacers during the third quarter in Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals\u00a0<\/span> <\/p>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n Jalen Williams<\/strong><\/a> Over 9.5 rebounds and assists<\/strong><\/p>\n Like the rest of his team, Jalen Williams had an off night in Game 6, but he had been super reliable in the previous five games of this series.\u00a0<\/p>\n He\u2019s recorded at least 10 rebounds and assists in four of those five games. Looking back to the prior two series, he\u2019s exceeded 9.5 rebounds and assists in six of the last eight games. Further, he\u2019s managed at least 10 rebounds and assists in four of the six games following a Thunder loss.\u00a0<\/p>\n Williams has taken more control of the Thunder\u2019s offense in recent games, especially as the Pacers keep hounding SGA in the backcourt. Following a game where the Thunder didn\u2019t shoot well or pass much, I expect Williams to generate more assists.\u00a0<\/p>\n He\u2019s often around the basket due to who he\u2019s guarding, so rebounds should be more within his reach. I like him Over here.<\/p>\n PICK: Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists<\/strong><\/p>\n Obi Toppin<\/strong><\/a> Under 10.5 points<\/strong><\/p>\n It\u2019s tough to fade someone who\u2019s hot, but this is the spot to do it.\u00a0<\/p>\n Toppin has scored 17, 12 and 20 points in his last three games \u2014 which is the most points he\u2019s scored in a three-game stretch this postseason. He\u2019s been a bright spot for the Pacers at the center position, especially with Myles Turner<\/a> struggling the last three games.<\/p>\n Can Toppin do it again? Four straight games, plus a Game 7 on the road? These are not the games where role players typically shine.<\/p>\n PICK: Obi Toppin Under 10.5 points<\/strong><\/p>\n Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @<\/i>GeoffSchwartz<\/u><\/i><\/a>.<\/i><\/p>\n Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? <\/i>Create or log in to your FOX Sports account<\/u><\/i><\/a>, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!<\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Get more from National Basketball Association<\/span> Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more<\/span> ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/a57.foxsports.com\/statics.foxsports.com\/www.foxsports.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/640\/427\/gettyimages-2221037328-scaled.jpg?ve=1&tl=1)
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