How to bet on the Falcons in 2025: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets for Atlanta

After struggling at the quarterback position since moving on from Matt Ryan following the 2021 season, the Atlanta Falcons went out last offseason and used multiple valuable resources to address the issue. First, they signed Kirk Cousins to a $180 million deal, then they used the No. 8 overall pick on Michael Penix Jr. After Cousins, who tore his Achilles the previous season, struggled to return to form, the Falcons made the decision to give Penix the final three starts of the season, in which Atlanta went 1-2 but averaged 32 points per game.

With Penix in place as the starter moving forward, the Falcons turned to their next most pressing issue: addressing a defense that finished 31st in sacks with no player securing more than six. First, the team gave Leonard Floyd a one-year, $10 million deal — their biggest signing of the offseason on an average annual value basis — and then threw two first-round picks at the issue in the draft, taking Jalon Walker 15th overall and then trading their 2026 first-round pick to get back into the late first round for James Pearce.

Those moves, along with using their next two picks on the secondary, mean the Falcons did next to nothing to upgrade the offense around Penix, so it’ll be on last year’s No. 8 overall pick to account for the improvement in the offense by surpassing the level of play Cousins brought to the table. Penix threw for plenty of yardage in his three starts but only completed 58% of his passes while throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions, and that came against two below-average defenses and the worst defensive unit in the league. Even with the Falcons facing one of the easiest schedules in the league, Penix is going to have to play much better to help Atlanta reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

We’re going to take a quick look at the Falcons’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Falcons in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 Atlanta Falcons season review

• Regular season: 8-9 (Second, NFC South)
• Playoffs: Missed
• Missed playoffs for seventh straight season (tied for second longest active NFL drought)
• Went 2-6 in final 8 games after starting season 6-3
• Bijan Robinson: Third-most rush yards (1,456) in NFL behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry

2025 Atlanta Falcons offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 Atlanta Falcons futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Michael Penix Jr. props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Falcons

The Falcons were 6-3 at one point last season before Kirk Cousins’ play deteriorated. Cousins is still on the roster as one of the league’s best backups but the switch to Penix looks to be the right decision. The rookie was solid in his first three starts, winning against the Giants and taking Atlanta to overtime against both the Commanders and Panthers. With a full offseason of work, Penix should be able to utilize all the weapons in this offense. The Falcons also addressed the defensive side of the ball through free agency and the draft. Even though they are counting on rookies to make an immediate impact, the results cannot be much worse than a season ago. Floyd, who is averaging 9.6 sacks per season over his last five seasons, is once again in a contract year and should be motivated to turn up the heat on opposing passers. The division is not particularly difficult with New Orleans and Carolina still in rebuilds and Tampa Bay potentially set to hit some sort of regression after winning four straight NFC South titles.

Reasons to fade the Falcons

Expectations appears to do Cousins in during the middle of the 2024 season, and those now fall on Penix as he enters his first season as a full-time starter. There’s a lot of great skill players on this offense but he’s going to have to make them go. Optimists can point to his games late last season but he did throw three touchdowns and three interceptions while completing just 58.1% of his throws. It’s unlikely he takes a massive leap in 2025 and the more probable result is a slight improvement as he gets more familiar with the system. Even though Atlanta’s defense was gashed across the board a year ago, patching those holes with rookies is unlikely to deliver an immediate fix. Floyd’s production has been stellar and he’s in a contract year but he is also going to be 33 early in the season and will the primary concern for opposing offenses.

The schedule is also a challenge for Atlanta. The Falcons have an early bye week, which means any midseason issues that crop up have to be dealt with during preparation for the next game. Even though there are only six playoff teams from a year ago on this schedule, the Panthers should be improved after surging late in 2024. The 49ers and Dolphins are candidates to bounce back from down seasons and Arizona is also likely to get better.

How to bet the Falcons in 2025

• Under 7.5 wins +140 (Caesars)
• Michael Penix Jr. Over 3350.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

The schedule could help Atlanta get to eight wins, but I just don’t know how someone can have a lot of confidence in this team without buying in completely to Michael Penix being a franchise quarterback, which I haven’t yet. Perhaps bringing in Jeff Ulbrich from the Jets and the two rookie edge rushers will suddenly give the Falcons an above-average defense, but projecting that involves another layer of optimism on top of Penix playing like a league-average starting QB or better. The other offseason moves don’t breed a lot of confidence, and I don’t know what on Atlanta’s requires us to just slot them in as better than the Panthers without question, and that’s coming from someone who isn’t sure he’s buying into Carolina either.

The one thing I do expect is for Penix to throw for a bunch of yards between the 20s in an offense that had more than 4,000 passing yards last year. If he stays healthy for all 17 games, he’ll only need 200 per game to get to 3,400 yards. That’s not exactly guaranteed — five QBs started at least 10 games without hitting that average — but I think it’s a reasonable expectation in this offense after we saw what Penix could do at the end of last year. If the Falcons lose the juicy Under play above, I have a lot more confidence in Penix hitting this Over, so consider it a bit of a hedge if you’re not full bought in on Under 7.5 wins.